Athletic It was recently reported that J.T. Miller’s agent said there was a good chance they would end all contract negotiations with the Canucks as soon as the NHL season began.
The J.T. Miller saga was the biggest story of the Canucks offseason, and the story dragged on for months as the Canucks couldn’t find a suitable trading partner. While at one point it seemed almost unlikely that Miller would start the season in Vancouver, it now seems extremely unlikely that the Canucks would be able to sell him before the premiere.
While Miller’s camp and the Canucks are reportedly still far from an extension agreement, the official conclusion of negotiations will be a significant event for the Canucks. There are implications not only for the Canucks’ ability to find an extension, but also for Miller’s value as a trading asset.
NHL like-for-like growth
The Canucks would like to keep Miller on their team, but the price difference seems too big to overcome. This valuation gap has not narrowed as other league players have made big deals. Miller’s camp can use these as benchmarks and work to value a forward on the Canucks’ budget.
Nazem Kadri just signed a 7-year, $49 million contract with divisional rivals the Calgary Flames. Miller is younger and a better player than Kadri, and the new Calgary Flames member said he left money on the table to go to Alberta. This means that $50 million over seven years serves as the starting point for Miller’s camp and a number that would be baseline at best.
These contracts work against the Canucks and Miller coming to an agreement and increase the likelihood that he will enter the NHL season still with the Canucks. This gives the Miller camp an opportunity to break off negotiations, leaving the Canucks with little leverage to find the best deal possible.
Losing an even larger and already weakened negotiating position
By last season’s trade deadline, the Canucks could offer the NHL’s top 10 points makers for two playoff appearances for just $5.25 million. It’s a very valuable asset that could be made even sweeter if the Canucks agreed to keep some of Miller’s already cheap salary.
At the moment, the Canucks can offer one playoff entry for the same player (albeit six months older). It’s already a depreciation in value that has now been exacerbated as the NHL has gone through the summer months and teams have acquired other players as free agents or through trades. These teams no longer need to make this spectacular addition, and they don’t need Miller.
The Canucks’ negotiating position has already weakened considerably. If the Miller camp comes out and publicly announces that they have stopped all talk of an extension, the Canucks will be cornered. Any potential trading partners could be threatened with simply waiting until the summer and then betting on Miller’s services when he becomes a free agent, leaving the Canucks to show nothing for their once-premium asset.
Faced with the possibility of a worst-case scenario
This worst-case scenario — when the Canucks can’t find a trading partner or reach an extension deal, and Miller is wasted next summer — is on the mind of every fan in Vancouver. After nearly a decade of watching asset mishandling, the fan base has rightfully suffered.
There is a lot of pressure on Patrick Alwyn and Jim Rutherford to make the most of this transition, which is indeed the first big test of their tenure. Considering the two have been silent on the transaction front so far – especially given Rutherford’s happy past – this saga will go a long way towards the duo’s reputation.
Given Miller’s influence on the ice and the value he represents as a trading asset with his low salary, the move is likely to play a major factor in determining the success of the Alwyn and Rutherford regime. While failure doesn’t necessarily mean failure, it’s a great chance for the Canucks to set themselves up for success. Allowing the Miller camp to publicly break off negotiations early in the season would be a huge mistake that would make life much harder for the Canucks.